Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets
Current as of Map Timestamp
This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.
Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
The final update for this map on 270toWin will be the evening prior to Election Day.
For real-time market pricing, which will change frequently as results come in, see this map at the Polymarket website.
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Headlines
Election Recap: May 6, 2025
Voters passed a ballot measure in Ohio; two Ohio mayoral incumbents advance to November
Live Results: Ohio Infrastructure Referendum and Mayoral Primaries, NH Special Primary
The ballot measure renews authority for the state to issue bonds to assist local governments for infrastructure projects
Update on U.S. House Retirements
Nine of 11 announced departures are seeking a higher office
Live Results: Texas Mayoral and Louisiana State House Special Elections
27 candidates are vying to be San Antonio's next mayor; the incumbent is termed-out
Sabato's Crystal Ball Initial 2025-26 Gubernatorial Ratings
38 seats will hold elections through 2026, including New Jersey and Virginia this year
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