JHK Forecasts: 2024 Presidential Election
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.
Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2024 election simulator.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Election Recap: May 6, 2025
Voters passed a ballot measure in Ohio; two Ohio mayoral incumbents advance to November
Live Results: Ohio Infrastructure Referendum and Mayoral Primaries, NH Special Primary
The ballot measure renews authority for the state to issue bonds to assist local governments for infrastructure projects
Update on U.S. House Retirements
Nine of 11 announced departures are seeking a higher office
Live Results: Texas Mayoral and Louisiana State House Special Elections
27 candidates are vying to be San Antonio's next mayor; the incumbent is termed-out
Sabato's Crystal Ball Initial 2025-26 Gubernatorial Ratings
38 seats will hold elections through 2026, including New Jersey and Virginia this year
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