2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. No polling is available yet in some less competitive states. In those cases, the Consensus Forecast rating is used.
The map automatically updates three times daily.
States where the margin is 4% or less are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is up to 8%, Likely up to 12%. Safe is >12%.
The map is interactive. Use it to create and share your 2024 presidential election forecast.
October 1: Ranges (see above) for each category narrowed. Polling should be more predictive as the election draws near. Prior ranges were <5% for Toss-up, <10% Leaning, <15% Likely.
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Headlines
Election Recap: May 6, 2025
Voters passed a ballot measure in Ohio; two Ohio mayoral incumbents advance to November
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Nine of 11 announced departures are seeking a higher office
Live Results: Texas Mayoral and Louisiana State House Special Elections
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Sabato's Crystal Ball Initial 2025-26 Gubernatorial Ratings
38 seats will hold elections through 2026, including New Jersey and Virginia this year
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